The official draft order is set coming out of Las Vegas, so here’s an updated forecast of how Day 1 may shake out in April—with five quarterbacks coming off the board early.
Super Bowl LVIII is the latest bit of proof that your favorite NFL team can have all the talent in the world at every other position, but it won’t matter if you don’t have the advantage at quarterback.
That reality is likely to be reflected in the 2024 NFL draft, as teams desperate for a game-changing presence under center jockey for position in pursuit of this year’s top prospects.
This means a likely run of quarterbacks will start the first round, which could leave a handful of clubs willing to either overpay to trade up for an elite talent—or going into panic mode to reach for the next-best passer on the board while passing up better players elsewhere.
Keeping all that in mind, here’s an updated look at how the first round of this year’s draft could take shape:
Team Needs: OL, WR, edge
Williams is one of the most anticipated prospects in recent history. Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports
QB Caleb Williams, USC
The Bears don’t need a quarterback, but they’ve got a rare scenario on their hands. They could keep building around Justin Fields or spend this pick on a prospect who has shown some Patrick Mahomes–esque flashes throughout his college career. Expect Chicago to trade Fields for more draft picks and reset at quarterback with an elite talent such as Williams.
Team Needs: OL, edge, LB
QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
Much like the Bears, the Commanders already have a young quarterback (Sam Howell) who has shown moments of brilliance despite lackluster surroundings. But Washington is still likely to pick a replacement because of their high draft slot. Daniels’s big-play ability as both a thrower and a runner made him last year’s Heisman Trophy winner and could have him leapfrogging Drake Maye into the No. 2 spot.
3. New England Patriots
Team Needs: QB, OT, WR
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
No matter which signal-caller falls to this spot, the Patriots will have an intriguing dilemma on their hands: Do they take the third-best quarterback in the class or fill another big need with the best player in the entire draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.)? The position is just too important, and the need is just too great for New England to pass on the last of this year’s elite quarterback prospects.
Team Needs: WR, CB, OL
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
This is the dream scenario for the Cards, who land the best player in the entire draft and fill arguably their biggest need. Harrison is as polished and pro-ready a player as you’ll ever see in the draft, and he’d give Kyler Murray the true No. 1 receiver he desperately needs.
Team Needs: CB, TE, DL
TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
This defense needs help at multiple spots, but in terms of overall talent and value, spending this pick on a pass catcher makes more sense. At the moment, the Chargers are deeper at receiver, but they could use a dynamic playmaker at tight end to make Justin Herbert even more dangerous. Bowers has the versatility and explosiveness to be worthy of this spot.
Team Needs: WR, QB, OL
Nabers is an explosive playmaker.
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WR Malik Nabers, LSU
In the unlikely event one of the top three quarterbacks falls to this spot, the Giants would have to consider cutting their losses with Daniel Jones. If not, they need to find “Danny Dimes” a true No. 1 receiver to lead their group of role-playing specialists. Nabers is a big-play machine who does his best work after the catch.
Team Needs: OL, CB, WR
OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
This is exactly how the Titans should want the board to fall in front of them, leaving them to choose between both of the elite offensive tackle prospects atop a loaded class. The son of a Pro Bowler at the same position, Alt has rare polish for a 20-year-old prospect and would be an immediate upgrade protecting Will Levis’s blind side.
Team Needs: QB, edge, CB
Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
If the Bears take Williams at No. 1, the Falcons would be a prime trade partner for Justin Fields. Whether they acquire Fields or not, Atlanta should avoid the temptation to reach for the fourth-best quarterback here and instead address its biggest need on defense. Turner is an explosive, athletic defender who put up huge numbers in his first year as a full-time starter.
9. Chicago Bears
Team Needs: OL, WR, edge
WR Rome Odunze, Washington
This is a huge win for the Bears, who give their new franchise quarterback another valuable weapon in the passing game. In any other draft class, Odunze could easily be the clear-cut top receiver prospect, thanks to his complete skill set and big-play ability. Pairing him with DJ Moore would give Williams a fantastic one-two punch of pass catchers.
Team Needs: OL, S, WR
OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State
Another team that’s able to match need and value perfectly is the Jets, who desperately need to improve their offensive line if they want to keep Aaron Rodgers healthy next season. Left tackle is the most glaring need, and while Fashanu could have been a fairly early pick in last year’s draft, he’ll be even more prepared for the jump to the pros with another year of college experience.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Team Needs: Edge, DL, CB
CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
Quarterback is obviously the big question mark here, but Kirk Cousins returning still makes the most sense for both parties. If that happens, the Vikings will be freed up to address multiple needs on defense, and while the trenches need plenty of work, they’ll find more value at corner with Arnold if the board falls this way.
Team Needs: QB, CB, edge
QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
It looks like the Russell Wilson debacle will be coming to an abrupt end this offseason, making his trade one of the worst in NFL history. Wilson’s departure would leave the Broncos in search of a new starting quarterback, and if they’re forced to reach into the second tier of this year’s prospects, McCarthy’s age (he turned 21 in January) and upside could give him the nod.
McCarthy is projected to be a mid-first-round pick even after taking Michigan to a national title.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Team Needs: edge, CB, DL
QB Bo Nix, Oregon
After another injury to Jimmy Garoppolo, the Raiders were forced to ride with rookie Aidan O’Connell for the majority of the 2023 season. They have a ton of needs elsewhere, but their desperation for an upgrade at quarterback could point them to Nix here. He’s an older prospect (turning 24 later this month), but he brings a ton of starting experience that would help his transition to the next level.
Team Needs: OL, edge, WR
OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
Derek Carr failed to live up to his hefty new contract, but it’s hard to imagine any quarterback having much success behind the Saints’ 2023 offensive line. Upgrading that unit should be their top priority this offseason, and Fuaga plays the game with a punishing style that would help New Orleans establish a physical identity on offense.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Team Needs: DB, WR, TE
CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
Indianapolis’s secondary needs help at both levels, and since this year’s class doesn’t have a first-round talent at safety, corner should be the focus at No. 15. Mitchell put up impressive numbers for the Rockets and then proved himself against top talent with a dominant performance during Senior Bowl week.
Team Needs: OL, LB, DL
OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
Addressing the interior of the offensive line should be a primary focus for Seattle under new head coach Mike Macdonald, and it shouldn’t have to look far for the perfect solution. Fautanu was a stud at left tackle for the nearby Huskies, but he could be even more dominant at the next level if he slides inside to guard.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Team Needs: OL, CB, WR
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
The Jaguars would probably love to see Fautanu fall to them here, given their own need for interior help in the offensive trenches. But if he doesn’t, they should look to add another blue-chip corner to pair with Tyson Campbell. McKinstry is more than just one of the best names in this class; he’s also got all the traits to develop into a shutdown player at a premium position.
Team Needs: OL, WR, DL
OT JC Latham, Alabama
Don’t count out some help for the defensive line here, but helping Joe Burrow has to be Cincinnati’s top priority. The quarterback will need more pass-catchers if the Bengals lose all of their pending free agents, but an upgrade at right tackle might be the most pressing need. Latham is a massive blocker with rare movement skills for his size (6’6″, 360 pounds), plus experience at right tackle against top competition.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Team Needs: edge, CB, OT
Verse who originally played at Albany from 2019 to ’21.
Melina Myers/USA TODAY Sports
Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
Losing Von Miller and Leonard Floyd over the last couple of years has left the Rams in desperate need of an impact player coming off the edge. Verse is a well-rounded player who can set the edge against the run, and get after opposing quarterbacks with a strong blend of both speed and power.
Team Needs: QB, OL, CB
OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
Last year, the Steelers broke a three-decade streak of not drafting an offensive tackle in the first round. This year, they could make it two in a row by going back to the same program that produced 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones. Mims missed part of last season with an ankle injury, but when fully healthy, he is a dominant presence in the trenches.
21. Miami Dolphins
Team Needs: OL, TE, DL
OL Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Miami has the most explosive offensive weapons in the NFL, as well as a capable quarterback when he’s healthy. None of that will matter if they can’t rely on their offensive line, so upgrades at multiple spots should be on their radar. Powers-Johnson was one of the biggest winners at the Senior Bowl this year, and his film proves he’s the rare center prospect worthy of a first-round pick.
Team Needs: DB, WR, edge
Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
Free agency could leave the Eagles needing reinforcements across the board on defense, so this pick is about finding the best value at any number of positions. In this scenario, they land a top-10 talent in Latu, who could slide down the board due to injury/durability concerns stemming from a neck injury that initially forced him to retire from football earlier in his college career.
23. Houston Texans (from CLE)
Team Needs: DL, CB, edge
DL Byron Murphy II, Texas
DeMeco Ryans’s first season as Houston’s head coach was a massive success, and his team should only get better from here. One key area of need is along the interior of the defensive line, where Ryans needs an explosive, disruptive playmaker who can camp out in opposing backfields. Murphy is undersized (6’1″, 308 pounds) but otherwise fits the bill perfectly.
Team Needs: OL, RB, CB
OL Jordan Morgan, Arizona
Offseason departures could leave the Cowboys with multiple needs along the offensive front, so targeting a versatile prospect who could play more than one position would be ideal. Morgan has the skill set and experience to give Dallas an immediate upgrade at either tackle or guard, depending on who returns next season.
25. Green Bay Packers
Team Needs: DB, OL, DL
DeJean set Iowa’s single season record with three interception return touchdowns in 2022.
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
With another secondary that needs help at both corner and safety, the Packers have an opportunity to add a player who could fill either spot. DeJean is one of the most versatile and athletic prospects in the entire draft, with the ability to make big plays regardless of where he lines up.
Team Needs: OL, edge, LB
Edge Chop Robinson, Penn State
The Bucs are likely to move on from veteran Shaquil Barrett for salary cap reasons, and they declined the fifth-year option on 2021 first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. That leaves Tampa Bay looking for a high-upside edge rusher to pair with rookie sensation YaYa Diaby; Robinson’s rare explosiveness would make him the ideal candidate.
27. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU)
Team Needs: WR, CB, OL
CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
After scoring Harrison in the top five, the Cardinals have the opportunity to fill their biggest need on the other side of the ball with this pick. Wiggins has ideal height (6’4″) and length for an NFL corner, and his ball skills make him a threat to make a big play anytime an opposing quarterback dares throw it his way.
Team Needs: WR, S, OL
WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Gabe Davis is headed for free agency, leaving the Bills in need of another big, field-stretching receiver to pair with Stefon Diggs. An explosive big-play threat, Thomas has a rare blend of size (6’4″, 205 pounds) and speed, and his ability to challenge opposing defenses over the top would be a fantastic fit for Josh Allen’s top-shelf arm strength.
Team Needs: CB, WR, edge
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
The Lions have one of the more complete rosters in the league, but they still have a few glaring needs, the biggest of which is at corner. Injuries and inconsistency plagued this unit all year long, so spending their top pick on a tough, smart cover man would be ideal. Rakestraw checks both boxes, and has the instincts and athleticism to limit big plays through the air.
Team Needs: OL, DL, CB
DL Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
For years, the Ravens have been one of the NFL’s best when it comes to finding value in the draft, especially as it pertains to stocking up on top talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They do both again here, landing an undersized (6’2″, 295 pounds) but dominant force for the interior of their defensive front in Newton, who could easily come off the board much earlier.
Team Needs: OT, CB, DL
Guyton has a height advantage, standing at 6’7”.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
San Francisco is arguably the most talented roster in the league, top to bottom, but the 49ers are still missing some key pieces. Right tackle is easily the biggest need on offense, and Guyton gives them the perfect solution. He’s got the experience at that position to make an instant impact, and his rare athleticism makes him an ideal fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Team Needs: WR, OT, DL
DL Darius Robinson, Missouri
For all the talk of needs on offense, the Chiefs are also facing the prospect of losing their best defensive player this offseason. If Chris Jones doesn’t re-sign, there will be a gaping hole at the heart of Kansas City’s defensive line. Robinson might have been the best prospect on the field at the Senior Bowl, and while it’s unfair to expect him to have the same impact as Jones, his combination of size (6’5″, 296), athleticism, and versatility makes him a worthy candidate.
Teams without a first-round pick
Team Needs: OL, WR, TE
WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
Carolina fans are probably going to run screaming away from this pick because of Kelvin Benjamin, but one of the core rules of prospect evaluation is to scout the player, not the helmet. Yes, Coleman is a big-bodied (6’4″, 215 pounds) pass-catcher from FSU, but he’s got the athleticism, physicality, and leaping ability to live up to his lofty expectations.
Team Needs: edge, DL, WR
DL Brandon Dorlus, Oregon
I know I keep putting the same guy here, but I just love the fit too much. The Browns need an impact player along the interior of the defensive front, as well as an upgrade on the edge across from Myles Garrett. Dorlus can line up at either spot, and he’s a well-rounded player who can anchor against the run or get after the quarterback.
