Not only is he the most enthralling prospect the league has ever seen because of physical stature and the skill-set that accompanies it, but he’s quickly realizing that raw talent doesn’t easily translate to wins. At least not right out of the gate.
Despite walking into the NBA as one of the league’s most tantalizing defenders and a supreme basketball IQ that’s well beyond his years, Wemby is already seeing how long of a road this will be.
The Spurs are 11-44, currently on pace for a 16-win season. It would be the worst winning percentage — by far — in the franchise’s storied history. At one point this year, they lost 18 straight games and 28 out of 30.
Wembanyama could easily let this disastrous season strip him of confidence or drag him down. Mentally, it has to be challenging to go from dominating the basketball scene overseas to being the worst team in your conference — with no hope of gaining playoff experience. Throw in the fact Wembanyama was billed as the next icon who could spark a massive turnaround out of the gate. Usually, watching the season slip away as quickly as it did for San Antonio would be a wake-up call for any rookie, especially one that possesses Wembanyama’s competitive fire.
However, the biggest takeaway from these first four months of Wembymania is easily his maturity. No question about it. The inhuman plays and on-court impact draw most of the attention, but the way he carries himself is arguably more impressive.
He simply gets it. Great things don’t happen overnight. Not in a league where the talent pool is deeper and parity now exists. With more high-level skill spread throughout the NBA, the young Spurs are heading into nearly every game with a massive disadvantage.
“The talent is just so incredible here (in the NBA),” he said when discussing the differences between the U.S. and France. “Every team. It’s tough to guard. The shots you have to take are different as well. Then, the positions … yeah, it’s way different.”
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Wemby knows patience is going to be paramount as the Spurs try to build a formidable rotation. But that doesn’t mean he’s not hungry to win immediately.
“Yeah, I’ve been told never to skip steps my whole life, but that didn’t stop me from running up the stairs,” Wembanyama said at All-Star weekend.
For him, it’s a balancing act. Instead of getting bogged down in the losses, he’s solely focused on the internal improvement. The outside noise, or what’s usually “expected” of a dominant rookie, aren’t relevant to him.
“Expectations? It depends from who,” Wembanyama said. “My coaches and my teammates, the rise of expectations has been going on all season. There’s no reason that it changes. So it’s something I hope will continue as well in the years to come because I don’t want to — we want to be in the playoffs soon, and then we want to win. But it’s something anyone has to manage in their career.”
Historically, it hasn’t taken long for the Spurs to blossom into a title contender after drafting a generational big man. They were instantly a 56-win, second-round team in the West during David Robinson’s rookie campaign in 1990. Eight years later, they replicated it with rookie Tim Duncan, only to win the championship the very next season.
That kind of turnaround likely won’t be in the cards for Wembanyama, particularly with the current state of the West and the elite guard-play needed before you can thrive.
Still, the Spurs are fortunate to have a once-in-a-lifetime player that is willing to go through this extended journey. Off the court, his maturity is rivaling Duncan’s and he’s already as articulate as veteran head coach Gregg Popovich when speaking about the game. It’s wild to experience because he’s not even legally allowed to drink.
On the court, Wemby is having an astounding rookie season. Even with the minute limitations he’s faced this year as San Antonio ensures they don’t overwork him.
To properly contextualize a player’s production in the ‘pace-and-space’ era, it’s important to translate per-game averages into their per-75 possession equivalent. With the rapid increase in transition opportunities and quicker halfcourt offense, numbers are naturally going to be higher in today’s league versus the last three decades. Not to call the stats inflated because that term gets used so negatively when discussing the modern style, but the only way to offer a fair comparison is to pace-adjust any data for comparisons.
Nearly 50 games into his rookie campaign, Wembanyama is posting 25.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per 75 possessions. He’s on track to become the second rookie in NBA history to average those numbers on a per-75 possession scale.
The other?
Larry Bird … 44 years ago.
During the 1979-80 season, Bird took home 95% of the first-place votes for Rookie of the Year at age 23. He was in a tight race with Magic Johnson for most of the year, but ultimately pulled away by averaging 24-10-4 over the Celtics’ last 20 games.
Twenty years from now, we might look back on Wembanyama’s battle with Oklahoma City center Chet Holmgren as another historic Rookie of the Year race. Each of them have strong arguments to be the front-runner. Holmgren is a consistent force for a bonafide title contender and the more efficient center at this point – largely due to the space he’s operating with in OKC compared to the Spurs’ shooting threats.
Meanwhile, Wembanyama continues closing the gap with his defensive prowess and standout performances. This past week, he notched his first career triple double by recording 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 blocks. He joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Ralph Sampson, and David Robinson as the only players in league history – not just rookies – to finish a game with at least 25 points, 10 boards, 10 rejections, and five steals.
For the season, he’s now eclipsed 1,000 points and 150 blocks within 50 games. Only two other players have hit those marks within 50 games, and both are top 20 players of all time: Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson.
Wembanyama is also the fourth rookie to ever hold a block percentage of 9% or higher. He’s currently joining Mitchell Robinson in 2019 (10.0%), Manute Bol in 1986 (10.6%), and Mark Eaton in 1983 (9.2%).
But it’s more than just his thunderous blocks into the third row. He’s making defenders think twice about testing him at the rim. Once a ball-handler breaks the paint, they are met with terror.
Since Jan. 1, the Spurs have held opponents to 109.8 points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the floor. For perspective, that would rank second in the NBA in defensive rating this season.
Holmgren, who’s been atop most Rookie of the Year ladders since October, was stoked to be sharing the floor with Wembanyama for Friday night’s event. While many will try to manufacture a rivalry between the two basketball unicorns, they share mutual respect and never take their matchups for granted.
“He’s a high-level competitor,” Holmgren said of his rookie counterpart. “You can see that in how hard he plays and the emotion that he plays with. He’s a really good basketball player, too, so it’s always fun to go up against players that are not only really good but play really hard. It really brings the best out of you.”
Wembanyama knows that he can’t sprint into best player in the world conversations until he pays his dues. Nor can he lead the Spurs to meaningful postseason games until the franchise is ready for those moments.
One thing he is excited to do, however, is be part of recruiting conversations when San Antonio begins hunting for the next All-Star to join forces with him.
“So yeah, of course it’s something I want to be a part of in the future,” Wembanyama said. “For now, I’m just a student of this league. I don’t really know how everything works. But of course, it’s something I want to be highly involved in.”
Until then, it’s all about staying competitive and being a sponge.
During Friday night’s Rising Stars performance, Wembanyama wanted to walk the line between having friendly conversations with his peers and staying locked into the season. When asked if he gave any of his Rising Stars teammates some tips while sharing the floor, he hesitated.
“I don’t know – I’m probably going to keep those a secret because I want to beat those guys in the season,” he said. “Yeah, I’m going to keep that a secret.”
