Some days, it feels like perimeter offense is completely dominating the modern era of NBA basketball. Scoring by guards and forwards has gone way up, the pace of games is lightning-fast compared to previous generations of pro hoops, and we’ve seen more three-pointers attempted this season than ever before.
However, players like Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama remind the NBA and its bettors regularly that big men still exist — and dominant big men are as dangerous as ever.
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Jokic — a 7-foot walking triple-double — has won two of the past three league MVPs, he led his Nuggets to an NBA Finals Championship last June, and he currently sits as a -130 favorite to win his third MVP.
Wemby, the 7-4 French phenom who continues to dazzle hoops fans with his insane skill set and eight-foot wingspan, is -650 to win Rookie of the Year.
But are these guys “locks” to take down hardware this season? Let’s dive into the odds and determine if either or worth betting or fading at their current odds.
Updated NBA MVP 2024 Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Player
Nikola Jokic
-130
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
+210
Luka Doncic
+900
Giannis Antetokounmpo
+900
Jayson Tatum
+2500
Kawhi Leonard
+6600
Jalen Brunson
+8000
Donovan Mitchell
+12500
Kevin Durant
+20000
Devin Booker
+25000
Anthony Edwards
+25000
Steph Curry
+50000
LeBron James
+50000
De’Aaron Fox
+50000
NBA MVP 2024 prediction: Is Nikola Jokic a lock?
We thought Jokic was on his way to an MVP three-peat last season, as he was only 0.2 assists per game away from averaging a triple-double while maintaining shooting splits of 63/38/82. However, a variety of factors came into play that prevented Joker from joining Russell, Wilt, and Bird as the only players ever to win back-to-back-to-back MVPs.
Those factors, in my humble opinion, were:
voter fatigue
anti-Jokic narratives
Joel Embiid’s superior scoring and defense
Joker’s missed games late in the season
It takes a lot to win three straight MVPs, especially in this day and age, and it’s likely voters started taking Joker’s greatness for granted last season. It’s also possible voters knocked him down for having never won anything in the postseason (which of course all changed last June).
Embiid cruised to the scoring title and Jokic all but moved aside for JoJo to take down the award, with the Nuggets center sitting out five of Denver’s last seven games of the 2022-23 season.
Now, with Embiid injured and officially disqualified from this season’s MVP consideration because of the NBA’s new 65-game minimum for awards (except for Rookie of the Year), reigning NBA-champion Joker might be seeing a market correction after last year.
Still, last year proved to us that the MVP race doesn’t get called early. Anything can still happen, and a lot has changed since this time last year. The Nuggets, who won the West last season, sit just fourth now (albeit just three games out of first). Joker’s scoring has gone up (26.1 PPG, compared to 24.5 last season), but his efficiency at all three levels has dipped, and his assist numbers have gone down from 9.8 last season to 8.9. And there’s one flashy player in particular that Joker has nipping on his proverbial tail.
The Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished fifth in MVP voting last year and averages 31.1 points per game, has helped OKC either sit first or second in the West for most of the season. SGA leads the NBA in steals (2.2 per game), shoots very well (54.6/37.1/88.3), and averages a quite respectable 6.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game. We’ve featured him plenty this season and could easily see him prevailing as MVP if OKC wins the loaded West.
Other players who merit consideration include Luka Doncic, who averages nearly 35 points per game but also plays for an inconsistent Mavs team in seventh place; Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose Bucks have struggled as of late and whose chances might be hurt by first-year Buck Damian Lillard; and Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Durant, all of whom don’t dominate any particular stat category and play within pretty stacked offenses.
We would argue that, at this point, the Knicks’ Jalen Brunson and Cavs’ Donovan Mitchell yield better value than Tatum, Leonard, or Durant — they have each arguably done more to individually propel their squads to success this season than just about anyone outside of SGA and Joker.
As of right now, though, it’s a two-man race with Joker in the lead. Don’t convince yourself that Jokic at -130 warrants a massive bet as a runaway, though. SGA and the Thunder could easily go on a late-season warpath and run away with MVP and the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed.
Updated NBA Rookie of the Year 2024 Odds
Player
Odds
Victor Wembanyama
-650
Chet Holmgren
+500
Brandon Miller
+15000
Scoot Henderson
+50000
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
+50000
NBA Rookie of the Year 2024 prediction: Is Victor Wembanyama a lock?
Unlike MVP, this one feels like a wrap, folks. As good as Chet Holmgren has been for the Thunder, Wembanyama has been unlike anything we have ever seen. He can handle the ball, throw it down, shoot the lights out, swat away shots, nab steals, and dish the rock. He’s wowed us with highlight-reel plays and jaw-dropping statistical games alike, and he’s the most exciting 19-year-old NBA player since LeBron James.
Wemby’s the face of the next generation as long as he stays healthy, and the 7-4 French phenom has been plenty healthy in his debut season. Despite Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich being known for resting his studs in non-contending years, Wemby has only missed six of San Antonio’s 55 games this season. Wemby leads all rookies in:
scoring (20.5 PPG)
rebounding (10.0 RPG)
blocks (3.2 BPG)
total steals (56)
double-doubles (26)
triple-doubles (2)
This isn’t just a lock. This is Leonardo DiCaprio Academy Award for “The Revenant” lock status. However, it’s only a lock if Wemby stays healthy — and “lock” doesn’t always mean “good bet.”
If Wemby unfortunately gets injured or shut down at some point in the near future, bettors will have potentially thrown out money for a chance to win a small amount. A $100 wager at -650 would net a winning payout of just $115.38. Why take such a big risk for the chance to make such a small reward?
There are more reasonable futures markets out there for those looking for healthier returns, including the Kings’ Malik Monk (+100) for Sixth Man of the Year and either OKC’s Mark Daigneault (+180) or Minnesota’s Chris Finch (+250) for Coach of the Year.
