It’s only been a week since the last regular season game was played, but fans are already missing basketball.

And no, “All-Star” weekend doesn’t count, especially when it included things like Jaylen Brown dunking over some random online streamer who’s 5’3” and was sitting down.

Enough chatter about All-Star shenanigans. The 2023-24 season is about to start its stretch run, and there are still many questions to be answered.

Let’s start in Cleveland.

Are the Cavs legit title contenders?

Since December 16th, Cleveland has gone an astonishing 23-5 with the best net rating (+11.0), #2 defense (110.1 defensive rating), and #6 offense (121.1 offensive rating). Oh, they also did that with Evan Mobley and Darius Garland playing in nine games apiece.

Interestingly, the Cavs went on their run right after both Mobley and Garland were injured. Cleveland’s not without them, but it did force the team to simplify their game and have the offense run through Donovan Mitchell pick & rolls and Jarrett Allen lob finishes — on the season, Mitchell is running 10 P&Rs a game (6th most league-wide) and averaging 0.99 points on those possessions, which ranks in the 78th percentile.

JB Bickerstaff and the Cavs’ coaching staff deserve tons of credit for diversifying their offense, too. Cleveland likes to keep its opponents on their toes by running lots of off-ball action. Just take a look at the play below, where Mitchell comes off of two pindowns that scramble Washington’s defense before lobbing it up to a wide-open Allen.

Over the entire season, the Cavs have an astounding +13.3 net rating (120.7 offense, 107.4 defense) when Mitchell and Allen play without Garland and Mobley. When those roles are flipped, Cleveland’s numbers are even more remarkable: with Garland/Mobley on and Mitchell/Allen off, the team’s net rating is somehow +14.8 (122.0 offense, 107.3 defense).

Interestingly, when all four share the court, the Cavs *only* have a net rating of +5.7. Their 109.6 defensive rating is still spectacular, but a 115.3 offensive rating with that much talent is puzzling. However, a lot of their scoring struggles are due to the lineup shooting only 32.9% from three — an unsustainable number given that Cleveland always surrounds its bigs with three very good shooters.

Speaking of shooting, Cleveland’s defensive success hasn’t relied on low three-point percentages from other teams, either. Over their 23-5 run, Opponents have still made 36.2% of their attempts from deep, which is the 8th-lowest mark but only 1.3% below the league average. Most importantly, the Cavs’ own 37.3% figure is 16th and slightly under the league median of 37.5%.

Simply put, Cleveland isn’t due for any wild regression — the team’s success is entirely the result of excellent coaching and execution. Sure, they’ve had an easy schedule, but Cleveland’s also 6-4 in games against opponents who are currently over 0.500 since mid-December, including two wins over the Bucks and one over the Clippers.

On paper, the Cavs have the ingredients of a true contender. They have arguably the best rim protection and defensive frontcourt in the league (opponents are shooting 61.3% within four feet of the basket, the second-lowest number league-wide) and have had a top-ten offense over the past two months even with room to improve from three.

Realistically, though, Cleveland’s ceiling is likely the conference finals due to Boston’s presence. The Cavs should be favored to grab the 2-seed now and should have an easy first round (assuming it’s not against the Zombie Heat).

If the playoffs started today, a second-round matchup against Milwaukee should be a coin toss given the Bucks’ lack of perimeter defense. However, if the Knicks await, I’d still pick New York given that they’re 1st in offensive (32.2%) and defensively rebounding (75.6%). Even so, a rematch would be more tightly contested since the Cavs are 5th in defensive rebounding (74.6%) when they were 20th (72.9%) last year.

No matter what happens, there’s no denying that Cleveland has proven many people wrong and will be a much tougher out in the playoffs this time around.

Milwaukee is not what the Doc order

The Bucks are 3-7 since Doc Rivers took over, who’s probably the first coach in sports history to question why he was hired.

In all seriousness, it’s way too early to pass judgment on this Milwaukee team. Remember, the Harden-era Clippers started out 0-5 before going 34-11 in the games he’s played in since. Record aside, it’s more prudent to see the difference in the Bucks’ playstyle since Doc took over to fully evaluate their play.

Prior to Doc coming on, Milwaukee’s 121.2 offensive rating was 5th league-wide, but in the 10 games since, that figure’s dropped down to just 113.9, which ranks 21st over that span. This drop-off has largely been the cause of the Bucks’ decrease in shots around the rim: under Adrian Griffin, 34% of Milwaukee’s shots came within four feet of the basket (13th highest league-wide), but that figure’s dropped to just 30.4% (26th) under Doc. Naturally, the Bucks’ free throw rate has plummeted too, going from 23.6 free throws taken per 100 field goal attempts (3rd) to just 17.2 (19th).

The rationale behind these changes is to prioritize transition defense. With Griffin at the helm, 17.2% of Milwaukee’s defensive possessions came in transition (29th), and that’s improved to 12.8% (3rd) in the 10 games under Doc. Just take a look at the clip below, where no Buck crashes the boards after Lopez takes a three. It’s not a surprise that Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding rate has also gone from 25.1% (25th) to 22.0% (28th) when comparing the numbers between the two coaches.

The good news for the Bucks is that they’ve hit just 36.4% of their threes over the past 10 games (20th league-wide) when they made 38.1% before then (8th). Much of that is due to unsustainably cold shooting from Dame (31.7% in those 10 games, 37% for his career) and Khris Middleton’s absence, who only appeared in three full games during that span.

In other words, Milwaukee’s offense has been getting unlucky bounces and will naturally improve when they receive some better fortune. Even so, the trade-off that Doc’s made will likely prevent the Bucks from being one of the very best offensive teams in the league, which is what they were under Griffin. The question Milwaukee needs to answer now is whether they want to have an elite offense and below-average defense, or a very good offense and an above-average offense.

They’ve chosen the latter so far, which seems like the smart move given that almost every champion in history has been good at both ends of the court. In the playoffs, though, when opponents will scheme specifically for the Bucks, their lack of roster flexibility will make it difficult for them to be consistent on offense and defense. As a result, Milwaukee’s ceiling this year is capped at the conference finals.

Is Wemby already a top-20 player?

In case you were wondering how Wemby’s been playing, our own jolly Editor-in-Chief has you covered.

For comparison, Wemby’s averages until then were 18.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.6 blocks in 19 games on 43.2/26.5/81.7 shooting splits.

The rookie phenom isn’t just putting up empty numbers, either. San Antonio’s 114.3 defensive rating with Wemby on the court is a very nice 69th percentile, and it would be tied for 8th league-wide over the entire season too. Remember, most of the Spurs’ lineups don’t have any impactful defensive players outside of Wemby, so it’s not an exaggeration to say that he’s singlehandedly propping up a good defense.

Additionally, opponents are shooting just 54.2% within six feet of the basket with Wemby guarding it, which is 10.1% worse than expected. That latter number is in line with some of the best rim protectors in the league, including Anthony Davis (-7.1%), Joel Embiid (-10.6%), and Chet Holmgren (-10.7%).

San Antonio’s offense has been a different story. The team’s scoring just 107.8 points per 100 possessions with Wemby playing, which would be the worst mark in the league by over a point. That’s not the rookie’s fault, though: the Spurs are making just 33.5% of their threes when Wemby’s on the court, which ranks in the 9th percentile among all lineups in the league.

When Tre Jones plays alongside the Frenchmen, San Antonio’s offensive rating improves to 111.9. That still ranks in the 25th percentile, but keep in mind that Jones is only a backup-level point guard, and the Spurs’ only other reliable offensive player is Devin Vassell. If this team ever gets a star-level guard, it’s easy to envision them having a top-10 offense and an even better defense as Wemby continues to improve.

More importantly, the rookie’s shown the ability to make his teammates better. Wemby’s passes don’t always connect, but he makes smart reads and has already improved his passing game significantly from the start of the season.

Another intriguing facet of Wemby’s offensive game is his off-ball movement. He’s constantly finding open areas of the court to free himself from defenders, making it easier for his teammates to find him for lobs. Wemby’s gravity also frees up space for other Spurs to operate, so he’s making an impact offensively regardless of who has the ball.

Given that Wemby’s a good scorer, decent playmaker, and arguably the best defensive player in the league, I do think he’s one of the 20-25 most impactful players in basketball already. History has shown us that these generational phenoms (LeBron, Luka, etc…) ascend to top-10, All-NBA level of players as early as their sophomore seasons, so don’t be surprised when Weemby reaches those heights next year too.

The pressure will then shift to the Spurs. They’ve largely been given a free pass this year, but when you have one of the absolute best players in the world, they better start contending as soon as possible.

With no basketball this week, many PtR writers have published articles on their own lives and backgrounds, and the most touching one is undoubtedly Mark’s story on Family, Life, and Basketball. It’s a deeply emotional piece that takes a lot of courage to write, so please give it a read and appreciate Mark’s willingness to open his heart to the PtR community.