Ranking Shohei Ohtani and All 14 of MLB’s $300M Contracts
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Just a decade ago, there wasn’t a single player in Major League Baseball on a $300 million contract. Now there are 14, with deals ranging from exactly $300 million all the way up to $700 million.
Clearly, the thing to do is rank them.
In lieu of simply sizing up these 14 players according to their present-day value, this is about looking forward. What they can do in the here and now matters, but how age and any injury- or performance-related concerns might threaten their future value matters just as much.
In other words, which deals are the best bets to yield dividends over time?
There’s no truly right answer here, but you might say these rankings represent my two cents.
14. DH Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
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Giancarlo StantonRich Schultz/Getty Images
Age: 34
Contract: 13 years, $325 million
Seasons: 2015-2027, with 2028 club option
Giancarlo Stanton was, of course, the first player in MLB history to net a $300 million contract when he inked his $325 million extension with the Miami Marlins back in Nov. 2014.
At least initially, things were good. The first four seasons of Stanton’s contract saw him win the National League MVP in 2017, with a .908 OPS, 151 home runs and 18.5 rWAR on the whole. It was money well spent on one of the best players in the league.
But these days? Oof.
Stanton has tallied all of 3.9 rWAR over the last five years, or just about 0.8 rWAR per season. Injuries have kept him out of about 45 percent of the Yankees’ games in this span. Otherwise, he still swings and misses a ton and the athleticism he used to have is now basically kaput.
Though Stanton doesn’t have the wrong idea in wanting to get leaner for 2024, even the Yankees aren’t kidding themselves about where he is at this stage of his career. And that is firmly past his prime.
13. CF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
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Mike TroutRonald Martinez/Getty Images
Age: 32
Contract: 12 years, $426.5 million
Seasons: 2019-2030
If anyone wants to get technical, Mike Trout’s $426.5 million deal is actually a 10-year, $360 million contract tacked on to the two years he had remaining on his previous deal.
Whatever the case, the first official year of the pact was a ho-hum affair. Trout hit 45 homers. Tallied a 1.083 OPS. Won his third American League MVP. You know, real GOAT stuff.
You know what stinks? What’s befallen Trout since then.
He’s had even more trouble staying on the field than Stanton over the last three seasons, playing in just 49 percent of the Angels’ games. The hamate fracture he sustained last year was fluky, sure, but it’s harder to wave off the calf injury that derailed his 2021 season or the back condition that he’ll have to manage for the rest of his career.
With a sturdy .962 OPS for the last three seasons, it’s a positive that Trout has remained a stupendously productive hitter when healthy. But if injuries don’t spoil that party, a slowing bat might. As it is, he’s already starting to have trouble making contact against fastballs.
12. SS Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
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Trea TurnerSarah Stier/Getty Images
Age: 30
Contract: 11 years, $300 million
Seasons: 2023-2033
It took a while, but Trea Turner eventually redeemed his debut season with the Phillies.
After posting a .656 OPS through his first 108 games, he clearly took that standing ovation to heart. He raked with a 1.069 OPS and 16 homers in 47 games down the stretch, followed by a 1.033 OPS and three more homers in the playoffs.
Still, all this shouldn’t excuse the red flags that popped up in Turner’s profile last year.
Too many of his metrics are trending in the wrong direction, including his chase (12th percentile) and whiff (25th percentile) rates on the offensive side. He also had his worst defensive season, tallying minus-five Outs Above Average.
Those who would argue that this was just one bad season have legs to stand on, including those concerning how Turner’s contact quality didn’t really suffer and how his sprint speed remained very much elite. But if those things start to deteriorate as he gets deeper into his 30s, the already thin ice beneath his stardom will be gone.
11. SS Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
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Francisco LindorElsa/Getty Images
Age: 30
Contract: 10 years, $341 million
Seasons: 2022-2031
Francisco Lindor’s first season with the Mets was also the last season before his $341 million contract kicked in. To say it looked like a bad omen would be understating it.
That was the year that Lindor set a career low with a .734 OPS and, for the first time in a full season, failed to crack the 4-rWAR threshold. He wasn’t bad, necessarily. He just didn’t traffic in $34.1 million-per-year levels of excellence.
The last two seasons, then, amount to a sigh of relief.
Though the heights of his late-2010s heyday remain on a whole ‘nother level, Lindor has been a highly productive offensive player to the tune of a .797 OPS, 57 home runs and 47 stolen bases. He’s also carried on as one of MLB’s premier defenders, as he now leads all defenders in Outs Above Average since 2016.
With his 30th birthday in the rearview, Lindor is surely closer to the end of his prime than to its beginning. But with basically none of his under-the-hood metrics portending imminent doom, the Mets can hope to get at least a few more great seasons out of him.
10. RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
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Gerrit ColeRich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age: 33
Contract: 9 years, $324 million
Seasons: 2020-2028
Until recently, Gerrit Cole was the only $300 million pitcher in baseball. It’s possible that there wouldn’t now be a second if he hadn’t proved such investments can be worth it.
Though Cole has had his trials in four seasons as a Yankee—e.g., the sticky stuff ban and Rafael Devers—he also has plenty to show for the experience. His 3.08 ERA equates to an easily above-average 136 ERA+ and, oh yeah, he just won the danged AL Cy Young Award.
Yet it seems fair to ask: When will it be time to worry about Cole?
He’s not young by baseball standards, after all, and his age may already be starting to show. He lost 1.1 mph off his average fastball from 2022 to 2023, and likewise saw his strikeout rate dip below 10 per nine innings for the first time since his days as a Pittsburgh Pirate.
To be sure, Cole’s ’23 season is solid proof that he can carry on as an ace despite these losses. Yet further losses in these departments are almost certainly inevitable. And the greater they are, the more Cole’s acehood may suffer.
9. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Yoshinobu YamamotoROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images
Age: 25
Contract: 12 years, $325 million
Seasons: 2024-2035
The Yankees wanted to pair Cole with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but it was apparently partly out of respect for the former that they didn’t match the Dodgers’ offer to the latter.
Their loss? Perhaps not if Yamamoto isn’t as successful in MLB as he was in Japan.
There are any number of ways this might happen. As electric as his stuff looks, there could be something that keeps it from playing as such against major league hitters. And between his unusual mechanics, his small 5’10”, 176-pound stature and the 967.2 professional innings he already has on his arm, one can imagine durability being an issue for Yamamoto.
Still, optimism beckons. Between his stuff, his exceptional command, his youth and his track record—dude had a sub-2.00 ERA in Japan—the Dodgers getting Yamamoto at this point of his career could be like if a team had signed Félix Hernández or Clayton Kershaw as they were heading into their age-25 seasons.
Basically, if the question is whether a young Yamamoto has more ace-like seasons in him than an aging Cole, I’m with the Dodgers in being willing to bet on Yamamoto.
8. 3B Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
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Rafael DeversPhoto By Winslow Townson/Getty Images
Age: 27
Contract: 10 years, $313.5 million
Seasons: 2024-2033
Even though he and the Red Sox did the deal around this time last year, Rafael Devers’ contract indeed doesn’t begin until this coming season.
If the Red Sox are going to get their money’s worth, the primary source is certainly going to be Devers’ bat. Whether you’re going off his 331 extra-base hits or his 1,036 hard-hit balls since 2019, he’s one of the most purely dangerous hitters in the sport.
Assuming they ever get back, the Red Sox can also feel confident that Devers will show up in the postseason. He has a .955 OPS in 26 career playoff games, with a peak of a 1.029 OPS during the club’s World Series run in 2018.
The catch is that Devers’ bat is already all he has. He doesn’t offer much on the bases and 2019 is the only year in which he hasn’t posted negative Outs Above Average at third base.
Yet even if such things make it hard to believe Devers will be worth every penny of his $313.5 million, more of the same on the offensive side will keep it from truly going bad. And on this front, he’s too young to be anywhere close to his prime’s end.
7. 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
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Manny MachadoMatt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images
Age: 31
Contract: 11 years, $350 million
Seasons: 2023-2033
Manny Machado may not be the only player on this list, but he is the only player in MLB history to sign his name on not one, but two $300 million contracts.
He earned the second by owning the beginning of the first, racking up an .855 OPS and 17.6 rWAR between 2019 and 2022. The threat of him opting out after 2023 was too real, hence why the Padres were aggressive in offering the deal he’s on now.
A time bomb was ticking in the form of an on-again, off-again case of tennis elbow, though, and last season saw it blow up. It could explain why Machado’s OPS dipped to .782. It definitely explains why he had surgery.
Machado believes the surgery is “going to make me better.” That’s something that can only be taken on faith, but it does help that his underlying abilities mostly remained strong even as he played through pain last season.
On the offensive side, the drop in Machado’s walk rate is eye-catching, but there was no corresponding increase in his chase rate. He also tied for third among third basemen in Outs Above Average even despite the bad elbow. As such, his leap back to superstardom seems short.
6. CF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
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Aaron JudgeSarah Stier/Getty Images
Age: 31
Contract: 9 years, $360 million
Seasons: 2023-2031
Aaron Judge’s $360 million contract was surely a reward for his record-setting 2022 season, but it was also a fair deal for one of MLB’s most consistent hitters.
To wit, only Judge and Freddie Freeman have bested an .890 OPS annually since 2017. Judge has more often strayed above .900 with his OPS, notably sitting comfortably above 1.000 in each of the last two seasons.
The obligatory knock on Judge is that he hasn’t always been healthy. He lost significant time to the injured list in 2018, 2019, 2020 and again in 2023.
Granted, you can look past last year’s fluke toe injury and reason that Judge has mostly been in excellent condition since 2021. But 6’7″, 282 pounds is a lot of body to maintain, and this year’s center field gig threatens to put a bunch of mileage on legs that will turn 32 years old on April 26.
Judge deserves the benefit of the doubt that he has a couple more seasons of greatness in him. But especially since he’s likewise highly prone to swings and miss, it’s hard to look at Stanton and not see what could become of Judge if his durability and athleticism begin to fade.
5. SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
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Corey SeagerCarmen Mandato/Getty Images
Age: 29
Contract: 10 years, $325 million
Seasons: 2022-2031
There are parallels between Seager and Judge, including some that are not so flattering for the former.
For starters, Seager has a history of spending time on the injured list that can be neither ignored nor downplayed. And while he is smaller than Judge at 6’4″, 215 pounds, there is a similarity in that he’s big for his position.
Seager is almost exactly two years younger than Judge, however, and even a skeptic like myself has to grant that concerns about his ability to stick at shortstop are outdated. He’s mostly been an above average defender since posting minus-15 Outs Above Average back in 2016.
Otherwise, nobody doubts that Seager can rake. He’s done better than a .900 OPS in three of the last four seasons, and has placed no lower than the 90th percentile for expected batting average or expected slugging percentage in any of them.
There’s power at work there, but also a bat-to-ball skill that consistently yields below average strikeout rates. Between all this and his postseason pedigree, there would be nothing to worry about if it wasn’t for the danged injuries.
4. 1B Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
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Bryce HarperTim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Age: 31
Contract: 13 years, $330 million
Seasons: 2019-2031
At the time he signed it, Bryce Harper’s $330 million deal with the Phillies beat Stanton’s $325 million pact as the largest in MLB history.
It’s amazing, then, that he’s managed to make it look like a bargain.
Though Harper’s other-worldly 2015 season remains an outlier relative to his entire body of work, it no longer accounts for his only MVP-winning season. He won another in 2021 and generally has a higher OPS as a Phillie (.931) than he did as a Washington National (.900). That’s not counting the playoffs, where he has a 1.137 OPS in 30 games as a Phillie.
Harper has continued to have injury trouble in the last two seasons, but neither his thumb fracture nor his Tommy John surgery from 2022 conjure any long-term spookiness. And even if it is a move down the defensive spectrum, his gig at first base should keep him healthy.
There’s otherwise no real question that Harper can live up to the lofty offensive standards of the cold corner. It would be great if he didn’t chase or whiff so much, but his abilities to draw walks, put the ball in play and generate hard contact are all doing just fine.
3. 2B Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Mookie BettsHarry How/Getty Images
Age: 31
Contract: 12 years, $365 million
Seasons: 2021-2032
If one is so inclined, one can dig up reasons to be pessimistic about the remainder of Mookie Betts’ $365 million contract.
It was as recently as 2021 that a nagging hip injury took a bite out of his athleticism, and it unfortunately hasn’t been restored. Betts’ sprint speed has gone from above average to merely average, which helps explain both his decline as a stolen base threat and why he’s officially moving from right field to second base full-time in 2024.
On the plus side, it showed in 2023 that second base is Betts’ natural position. Though Outs Above Average didn’t rate his work there highly, other metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating sure did.
Offensively, Betts has still yet to post an OPS below .800 in any season and is fresh off one of his finest campaigns to date. Beyond the .987 OPS and career-high 39 home runs, there’s a whole host of metrics—e.g., a 99th-percentile chase rate, 94th percentile exit velocity and an 88th-percentile strikeout rate—that underscore his sheer efficiency as a hitter.
No other contemporary second baseman is this kind of offensive threat, meaning that Betts is arguably already the best player at the position even if he’s not fully moved in yet.
2. RF Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
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Fernando Tatis Jr.Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Age: 25
Contract: 14 years, $340 million
Seasons: 2021-2034
After he signed his name on it in Feb. 2021, it’s remarkable how quickly the sheer promise of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s $340 million contract deteriorated.
It wasn’t just that he was hit with an 80-game suspension in Aug. 2022. It was also that he had three surgeries that year, including two for a self-inflicted wrist fracture and another for a bothersome left shoulder injury.
Between all this and Tatis’ move from shortstop to right field in 2023, all the kindling was there for his stardom to go up in flames. What happened instead, though, was him authoring a 5.5-rWAR season that netted him down-ballot MVP votes and a well-deserved Gold Glove.
The .770 OPS that Tatis posted last year is nothing like the .965 OPS he posted between 2019 and 2021, but the power and speed were still there as he produced 25 homers and 29 stolen bases. And despite what he went through in 2022, he improved his strikeout rate and maintained a hard-hit rate in the 90th percentile.
By the way, Tatis only just turned 25 on Tuesday. There’s every reason to think the worst of it is behind him, and quite a few reasons to think even the best is yet to come.
1. DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Shohei OhtaniFREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images
Age: 29
Contract: 10 years, $700 million
Seasons: 2024-2033
When it comes to Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million contract with the Dodgers, a certain amount of honesty is required.
First, about how the deferrals lower the present-day value of his deal to more like $460 million. And second, about how the Dodgers getting him is as much a win for their marketing department as it is for their roster.
But as tempting as it was to put Ohtani somewhere other than No. 1, I just couldn’t do it.
The ideal path forward for Ohtani involves going back to being the only true two-way star in MLB history after he spends 2024 healing from his second elbow surgery. This guy is a two-time unanimous MVP and underrated by WAR even as it rates him higher than anyone else.
Failing this, Ohtani has a path forward as an outfielder. Less ideal, perhaps, but it’s not hard to imagine him as a stereotypical superstar corner outfielder with 40-homer power and both the speed and arm strength to contend for Gold Gloves. And compared to most corner outfield guys his age, this one won’t have as many miles on his legs.
Either way, the Dodgers should do well on the $2 million annual salary they’ll actually be paying Ohtani over the next 10 years.
